Data/hora: 10/05/2024 09:15:35

Biblioteca(s): | Epagri-Sede.
Data corrente: | 18/01/2023
Data da última atualização: | 18/01/2023
Autoria: | SOUZA, J. M.; MORGADO, P.; COSTA, E. M.; VIANNA, L. F. N.
Título: | Predictive Scenarios of LULC Changes Supporting Public Policies: The Case of Chapecó River Ecological Corridor, Santa Catarina/Brazil.
Ano de publicação: | 2023
Fonte/Imprenta: | Land, Basel, Switzerland, v. 12, n. 181, p. 1-24, 2023.
Idioma: | Inglês

Conteúdo:

The studies of spatial-temporal land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns, supported
by future scenarios and simulation methods based on the assumption of natural socio-economic
and territorial driving forces, allow us to go beyond an accurate diagnosis of the dynamics that
have occurred so far, providing a picture of possible alternative futures, and are fundamental in
assisting with the planning and policy-making in the territory. In this paper, we use LULC maps
and explanatory variables aggregated in five dimensions (physical/natural, economic, sociocultural,
technological, and demographic) to identify which are the main drinving forces in the evolution
process and the simulation of LULC dynamics for 2036, using as a case study the Chapecó River
ecological corridor (Chapecó EC) area. The Chapecó EC was created by the state government in
2010 with the goal of combining nature conservation with local and regional development. In this
region, in the last two decades, the loss of areas of natural grassland and forest was on average
five times higher than the average recorded in the state. Based on scenario-building methods using
artificial neural networks, six predictive scenarios were elaborated, based on three socioeconomic
scenarios (current conditions, growth, and socioeconomic recession) and two territorial intervention
options (actions). This includes an action based on maintaining the current LULC, and another
action of a conservationist nature with the recovery of forest and natural grassland areas to the
proportions of areas found in 1990. The results indicate that if the current LULC is maintained, forest,
pasture and agriculture areas tend to increase, while silviculture and natural grassland areas decrease,
driven by economic and physical/natural driving forces. If there is a conservationist action, natural
grassland and pasture areas tend to increase and silviculture and agriculture tend to lose area due
to economic, technological, and physical/natural driving forces. These trends have revealed that
the natural grassland preservation/restoration, the encouragement of conservationist agricultural
practices combined with economic strategies, and the technological development of the rural sector
seem to form the basis of economic development combined with biodiversity conservation

Thesagro: | agricultural technological development; artificial neural networks; good farming practices; predictive scenarios; spatial modelling; spatial planning.
Categoria do assunto: | P Recursos Naturais, Ciências Ambientais e da Terra
URL: | http://intranetdoc.epagri.sc.gov.br/producao_tecnico_cientifica/DOC_56240.pdf
Registro original: | Epagri-Sede (Epagri-Sede)
Exemplares: | Epagri-Sede - (108067-1) - UPC - AP - DD -  -  -  - DIS